EURO 2020 FINAL

 We're finally here . A month of pure footballing brilliance leads down to one last battle at the home of British football. It's the Final of Euro 2020 at Wembley and it promises to be an indelible final. We have enjoyed some wonderful games along the way made even more special by the presence of fans in the stadiums for the first time in over a year. It's the Azzuri against the Three Lions . Will football come home or Rome ? 

ENGLAND VS ITALY 

It's not the final many expected but Italy and England have proven to be the two best, or in England's case , most effective teams of Euro 2020. The two teams however have not only followed different paths but also have quite different styles of play. While Mancini's Italy have entertained us with some of the best football in the tournament , England have been effective . They have got the job done and are in a final of a major tournament for the first time in 55 years. They definitely don't care how they've got there.

Gareth Southgate was heavily criticized after their 0-0 draw against Scotland in their second group game . There was clamour to get England's attacking talent on the pitch and for the team to change how they play. Gareth stood firm , doing what was necessary in his eyes to get the job done . His reward? A place in the final and the whole press and fans behind him as he aims to deliver silverware and finally bring it home as they call it. He has been ruthless when needed as shown when he subbed Grealish who had just come on as a sub against Denmark. Gareth Southgate deserves lots of credit.

The job Roberto Mancini has done has  been well documented and he deserves huge credit. Rebuilding the Italian Squad was a daunting task but to further change the style of play is no mean feat. What will concern Italians is how tactically inept he looked when Spain totally outplayed them in the Semi finals. Credit to him he kept his side in the game and they emerged victorious. But to win the final he will know that he has to get his tactics spot on.

Case For England 

This could be the perfect tournament for England. Played 6/7 games at home ,boasting the best defensive record in the tournament and the prospect of lifting the trophy on home soil , England have everything going for them. 

It's said defenses wins you tournaments and it couldn't be more true in this case. England's defense has formed the foundation for their success . With the pace of their forwards in Raheem Sterling , Bukayo Saka or even Jadon Sancho , Phil Foden and Marcus Rashford , England are the sort of perfect counter attacking side . The industry of Kalvin Philips and Declan Rice in midfield has helped their backline immensely and given them dynamism in midfield. The back four has been near perfect.Raheem Sterling has basically dragged this team through the tournament. His pace and directness will cause any defense problems and he will have to be on his game for England to win.

How can England beat Italy ? 

Italy have struggled in two games in the tournament and in both there are similarities. The two knockout games are against Austria in the round of 16 and Spain in the Semi final 

In both Spain and Austria pressed really high and did not give Italy the luxury to play out from the back. Mancini has built this team on Jorginho's ability on the ball where the play begins with him . Spain played with a false 9 with one of the forwards dropping deep to cover Jorginho and the others covered any possible passing channels . This resulted in Italy struggling to progress the ball up the pitch and in both we saw Donnarumma have to hoof the ball upfield as he had no option. 

The three Italian midfielders are all different and have different roles but when the pressing is so high Italy struggle to progress the ball since they have no natural number 10 to link play. Barella is normally the furthest of the three relying on his work rate to recover defensively. 

England posses a number of quick technically gifted players and can  comfortably press and cause Italy problems . They have to be willing to take the risks going forward, something that Southgate may not be willing to do.

They second option is riskier and may come back to bite them . England could sit deep and depend on their pacy  forwards especially Sterling and create one vs one situations and hope they can get the better of them. Stretching the Italian backline will be key as we know their Centre backs are not as quick . This will be Kane's main responsibility as we know he loves dropping deep and linking play , so if he can drag Chiellini or Bonucci with him then space opens for the run of Sterling.

Spinazzola missing out is a huge blow to Italy and as we saw in the Semi , his absence also affected Lorenzo Insigne. The forward contributed almost nothing and was eventually substituted . Emerson is a decent back up but the drop in quality from Spinazzola is there for all to see.

Case for Italy 

It would be a beautiful fairytale for Roberto Mancini to win considering where Italian team was when he took over . They have been the best team in the tournament and based on performances , they deserve to win it.  One last fight for Chiellini and Bonucci , a symbol of probably the last strongmen and loyalists of die hard defending. After the tears of 2018 , they deserve to celebrate. But football is played on the pitch so how does Italy win the Euros?

How can Italy Beat England ? 

The task for Italy is to breach the best defense in the tournament. England have barely shown any weaknesses in defense so the Italians will know they will have to be at their creative best to win this one. Since England have not been leaky it's easier to focus on Italy. 

We have seen versions of Italy throughout the tournament and they are more than ready to adapt . The group phase showed a classy Italian side  which played what they call Tiki Italia. Beautiful attacking football that tore their opponents to shreds.

During the knockouts the Italians showed they have what it takes to dig deep and get the job done . The goal against Spain is a good example of how quick the Italians can transition from defense to attack . Their technically gifted midfielders give them so much dynamism that they can play on the counter or keep the ball. 

More importantly Italy have shown so much character and the willingness to suffer in games. The last 20 minutes against Belgium showed the maturity and leadership when they closed the game out so early in a way only the Italians can . 

The Italian dynamism makes them a really difficult team to play against and why they can beat England in whichever way the game pans out.

Questions for Italy 

Who starts upfront?

Ciro Immobile has shown worrying signs . He has been really poor since the knockout stage began and will need to be at his best on Sunday. His work rate is important to this Italian team but in a final you need moments of quality to win you games . Belotti is an old fashioned 9 who can come in when you're trailing or closing a game out to give the English centre backs a different challenge to Immobile.

 Who Plays Left Back? 

Spinazzola's absence is a big miss and Emerson did little against Spain to suggest he could fill this big shoes. Di Lorenzo is an option which could see Toloi on the right but that Left side is one England could capitalize on 

Federico Chiesa will be  the man to watch going forward , pace, power , technique and an eye for goal . He has it all . 

Questions for England 

Will formation change? 

Gareth Southgate could decide to go back to a back 5 which has proved so successful for him in the past. The win against Germany as well as their Semi Final finish in the World cup came while playing 5-3-2 . He could be tempted to switch back to it. 

Saka , Foden or Sancho ? 

The right side in attack has not had an established first choice and it remains to be seen who starts on Sunday. Saka is the safe pair of hands but considering Italy's problems on the left of defense, Southgate could be tempted to go with an all out attacker like Sancho. 

Raheem Sterling will again be the main man. His pace , directness will cause Italy all sorts of issues and him having a good game will see England win it.

Italy's dynamism makes them slight favourites for me and feel that England being at home will not sit back . England have not faced a threat like Italy up to now and it remains to be seen how they will cope with not only the quality of opposition but also the pressure of playing at home . Everything has been set up for England to win but Italy will want to spoil the party. I think it will be an exciting game and goals will definitely be there. 

Penalties though are a real possibility.

Verdict : ENGLAND 1:2  ITALY