AFCON 2023 Quarter Finals Preview

 It has been three weeks of absolute chaos in the African football world. AFCON 2023 is already being touted as the best African tournament in recent memory, for some maybe the best ever. And it's not difficult to see why. Huge footballing nations such as Ghana, Algeria and Tunisia were sent packing in the group stage while tournament favourites Senegal, Egypt and Morocco were bundled out by much less fancied opposition. 

AFCON 2023 has seen more goals scored (105) than the whole of 2021 (100) and 2019 (102) editions of the tournament. What's more astonishing is the 2023 Quarter final line up has no team from the same stage at the previous AFCON tournament. As fans we can only say let the competition keep on giving. 

And now the Quarter finals are upon us,. The stakes are higher, the trophy almost in sight. Who is going to make it to the next round?

NIGERIA VS ANGOLA 

The first quarter final pits the highest ranked African side left in the tournament, Nigeria ,against the lowest side in Angola ranked 115th worldwide. Jose Peserio's side now firm favourites for the crown they last wore in 2013 despite the pessimism coming into the tournament. Nigeria lost 2-0 to Guinea just five days before the start of the touranment. For some, an ominious sign of things to come.

But the Super Eagles rebounded from that loss and now seem like a different team, a more united team with a purpose. Much of their success so far has been based on a solid base. Nigeria has only conceded one goal so far. The switch of formation to a 3-4-3 has been key. The back three of Sami Ajayi, W. Troost-Ekong and Calvin Bassey has looked imperious. All physically imposing Centre-backs who give the rest of the team a platform to build on.

Upfront, they have Victor Osimhen. A world class striker who never stops huffing and puffing. His performance against Cameroon showcased his dogged determination in pressing opposition defenders and competitiveness in his duels. His attitude is infectious. He sets the tone for the press and Angola will have to be weary. His only criticism is that he has been wasteful in front of goal thus far.

Angola will heavily rely on Gelson Dala to make a difference together with his forward partner Mabululu. The pair have 7 goals combined in the tournament and were at their imperious best against Namibia. Mabululu's goal a work of art. They set up in a 4-3-3 and have scored 9 goals in total, a clearly potent side in attack. 

According to Opta Analyst, both teams average less possession than their opponents and them together with South Africa have had the most shots from counter-attacks at AFCON 2023. So there is a clear preference to keep it tight and break from both teams. Will Nigeria as the big boys take charge and control proceedings? Will that open up more space for Angola and their dangerous attack? A close match is predicted but I feel the Niaja defense will again will them the game.

Prediction:  Nigeria 1: 0 Angola

DRC VS GUINEA 

DRC are doing their best impression of the 2016 Ronaldo led Portugal EURO winning side. They have drawn all their games and squeaked through Egypt on penalties. Boasting of names such as Arthur Masuaku, Yoanne Wissa and Cedric Bakambu , they clearly have the talent to be the dark horses of the tournament. 

Guinea on the other hand survived an Equitorial Guinea penalty miss to advance to the quarters. Mohamed Bayo has in the absence of Serhou Guirassy established himself as the main man upfront. Guinea will be sweating over Guirassy's fitness in hope that the Stuttgart striker who has 17 goals in 14 Bundesliga games this season can be the difference maker.

Statistically, DRC has the second highest expected goals (XG 6.6) in the tournament behind Nigera but have only scored three goals. Bakambu and co must do better. Guinea meanwhile have allowed opponents just four shots on target a competition low despite conceding thrice. Upfront they have the fewest shots (36) and lowest XG (3.5) making this another tight contest. I think DRC just have more in their Arsenal to just edge Guinea.

Prediction: DRC 2-1 Guinea in extra time

CAPE VERDE VS SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa  bravely saw off Morocco in the round of 16 silencing lots of critics along the way. Hugo Broos' side bounced back from a 2-0 opening day defeat to reach the quarter final keeping three clean sheets along the way. Celebrations against the Moroccans showed how tightly-knit the SA players are and the genuine feeling they can make a difference. Teboho Mokoena's free kick won't be forgotten anytime soon by South Africans.

Cape Verde have been one of the entertainers of the competition. Their quarter final against Mauritania was as good a match as you will see in this tournament. Their finishing in front of goal was wasteful but the quality of their football is not in doubt. They will heavily lean on experience as they have  the oldest average starting eleven in the competition at 29 years and 64 days old ( source: Opta).

I feel South Africa thrive when they have a point to prove, when everyone says they're out and have no chance they surprise you. Their win against Morocco was akin to the 2019 elimination  of Egypt at the same stage but I think their road ends here. Cape Verde look like a team that will score in any game and I fancy them against Bafana Bafana.

Prediction: Cape Verde 2-0 South Africa

MALI VS COTE D'IVOIRE

This is my pick for match of the quarters. It's a game which I feel will have everything. Goals, quality footballs, huge fan support, emotion, tears , desperation ..... I expect a spectacle. On one hand you have the hosts, Cote d'Ivoire, who fought valiantly against Senegal through sheer will to repair the relationship with the fans after the humiliation against Equitorial Guiea while on the other side you have a Mali side hugely impressive for large parts against the Burkinabe and they fancy their chance of progression.

Ivory Coast were given a new lease of life and they did not waste it. Emerse Fae stamped his authority with key changes that were the bedrock of their win against Senegal. Serge Aurier, Jean M.Seri and Max Gradel were all reinstated back into the side with Franck Kessie dropped to the bench. Odilon Kossounou was given his first start and was hugely impressive at the back. Seri's inclusion for me was the key. The experienced midfielder occupied the space between the defense and midfield, curbing out the gapping hole that was so heavily exposed against Equitorial Guinea. He together with Centre-back partnership of Evan Ndicka and Kossounou enabled Ivory Coast dictate the game against heavily fancied Senegal.

It may have only been Fae's first game in charge but tactically it was the best Ivory Coast have looked in the entire tournament. They effectively reduced Senegal to the rare attack. Fae's choice of Max Gradel and Oumar Diakite on the wings ensured the fullbacks were protected. When they needed to go all out attack Simon Adingra and Nicolas Pepe added a new dimension upfront. The only question about them is whether they can reduce the overeliance on Seko Fofana for creativity.

The reliance on Seko isn't a bad thing. He's a powerhouse and on his day can be unstoppable but opponents are marking him out of the game. Anytime he has the ball the opposition press him away from goal, against Senegal he was only allowed time on the ball deep in midfield. The return to fitness of Sebastian Haller as well as Simon Adingra may open up the much needed space for Seko to operate in.

I was impressed with Mali against Burkina Faso. I liken their football to Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool. They're intense and every ball is played with the intention of going forward. They attack and defend in numbers. They play a diamond 4-4-2 or Madrid's 4-1-2-1-2 with the goal of compressing the middle and win the ball before playing it forward quickly. Amadou Haidara and Yves Bissouma provide the technical quality to perform  both roles in abundance If they outnumber you in the middle then you're in trouble. 

Ivory Coast like to play with a sitting 6 and two 8s and my guess is Mali will match that and possibly have an extra attacker to mark the number 6 (Seri) causing an overload in the middle. Cote d'Ivoire will have to get their spacing right in midfield and rely on their technical midfielders to play through Mali. I think it will be a superb watch.

There have only been three teams to average more than 50% possession in this tournament: Ivory Coast (61.8%), Mali (56.8%) and Cape Verde ( 53.8%). So both sides are comfortable with the ball and look to dominate possession. Mali might just sit back a little because as proven before Ivory Coast can be sloppy.

Ivory Coast have been my bet to win the tournament so I'm a bit biased nevertheless I expect them to go through. History is also on their side as Ivory Coast has never lost against Mali in an AFCON game.

Prediction: Ivory Coast 3-1 Mali