AFCON 2023 Semi-Finals Preview

It's crunch time at the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations. One of Nigeria, Ivory Coast, DRC or South Africa will be crowned champion of Africa. All four teams have a different story; a pressure-riddled host who has more lives than a cat, an unknown quantity who have snuck their way to the table in DRC, a super eagles team who look exactly that, super and a South Africa side hell-bent on claiming the Amapiano bragging rights :). Jokes aside, let's see what the Semi-finals have in store for us.

NIGERIA VS SOUTH AFRICA

The Amapiano derby as they're calling it on social media. If the game is anywhere close to the heated banter on social media, then we should be in for an exciting match. South Africa have Ronwen Williams to thank for his heroics in the quarters, saving four out of five penalty kicks against Cape Verde. Heroic seems like an understatement considering it's never been done before. He's conceded just two goals in the whole tournament from an expected goal on target (XGOT) of 5.1, meaning he has conceded less than half of the goals that would be expected (source Opta).

South Africa, like Nigeria, have built their success in this tournament on a sturdy defence.  A Mamelodi Sundowns defense to be precise. Their starting keeper and back four are all from the Brazilians. In fact eight of the starting eleven stem from Mamelodi Sundowns. Their understanding has worked to the benefit of Bafana Bafana who last conceded in the opening day defeat to Mali. Since then they have grown from strength to strength.

Nigeria look like the perfect tournament team. They are designed not to concede. When you combine good players and the right structure you get a team tailor made for knockout competitions. Victor Osimhen was a doubt for this game after the team traveled to Bouake' without him but he was later pictured in training having got the medical clearance to join up with the rest of the team.

The only problem with looking so perfect is that you never truly know how you will react when tested. And that might just be Nigeria's downfall. Tactically, I believe they have been far superior to the majority of their opponents. Against Angola for example, they had numerical advantages all over the pitch. Moses Simon and Ademola Lookman are causing headaches for opposition coaches. They're naturally wingers but are playing narrow more like 10s but can also play wide when the team needs them to do so. At the back they look imperious. These are some of the questions that South Africa have to answer. Nigeria can defend but can they break down teams? South Africa will help us answer that question.

 South Africa will draw encouragement from the fact that Nigeria have lost five of their last six semi-final games at AFCON. Their last encounter was in the 2019 edition in which Nigeria won 2-1 courtesy of  a W.Troost - Ekong late winner. It's a close one to call considering how tight both defences are. If S.Africa can frustrate Nigeria and somehow get to penalties then they will shock us but I just feel Nigeria are too strong and are so well set up in this tournament.

Prediction: Nigeria 2-0 South Africa

COTD'IVOIRE VS DRC

The home side haven't disappointed. Well they have depending on if you're supporting them but their games haven't. There's always drama, controversy and entertainment for the neutrals but gut-wrenching at times for their supporters. That win against Mali was nothing but a show of sheer will and determination. Up next DRC who will be hoping for a much more quiet affair should they manage to kill this elusive cat.

DRC won their first game of the tournament against Guinea in the quarters. The trio of Arthur Masuaku, Yoanne Wissa and captain Chancel Mbemba turning on the heat against a lackluster Guinea. Confidence is rife in the camp, as evidenced by coach Sebastian Desabre's comments in the pre-match press conference. " We believe we can get to the final," he said. His confidence might not be misplaced considering Ivory Coast's plight in the tournament. According to Opta, DRC have allowed the fewest shots on goal of any of the four semi-finalists left in the tournament. They can clearly score goals but are also keeping them out.

It feels like Ivory Coast have been almost out of the tournament so many times in this edition but time and again they find a way. They can't keep doing this, or can they? Their game plan went out the window against Mali after Odilon Kossounou was sent off in the first half so there's an argument that we've not seen a fully settled Ivory Coast side play at this tournament. Injuries as well as suspensions have meant Emerse Fae hasn't had his preferred eleven on the pitch. Sebastain Haller might just provide the much-needed boost with his first start of the tournament while Simon Adingra may have forced his way into the side with game changing contributions against Mali and Senegal.

The message from Fae's press conference was control. " We'll try to impose our rhythm and control," he kept on repeating. His managerial career is in its infancy but it's pretty clear what his philosophy will look like. The Elephants have the highest average possession (56%) of teams left in the tournament so the intent is clear from them, control and dominate the game. For one reason or another we have only seen glimpses of this football.

According to Opta, on the last three occasions the AFCON host nation has reached the semi-finals, they have been eliminated without scoring a goal. Ghana in 2008 (lost 1-0 to Cameroon), Equitorial Guinea in 2015 (lost 3-0 to Ghana) and Cameroon in 2021 (0-0 lost 3-1 on penalties to Egypt). Grim reading if you're an Ivory Coast supporter. However, the last time the two sides met at this stage of the tournament was in 2015 where Ivory Coast won 3-1. 

I've backed Ivory Coast throughout the tournament and I'm hoping Sebastian Haller will have his say tonight.

Prediction: Ivory Coast 3-1 DRC